Friday, November 2, 2012

The Electoral College Map (11/2/12)

24 new polls from 17 states closed out the final work week before election day. Additionally, there were two other surveys from earlier in October factored in as well from a couple of non-competitive states -- Maine and Nebraska.

New State Polls (11/2/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
10/28-10/31
+/- 3.8%
695 likely voters
47
45
--
+2
+1.65
Colorado
10/31-11/1
+/- -.-%
825 likely voters
50
46
4
+4
--
Connecticut
11/1-11/2
+/- 2.8%
1220 likely voters
55
42
3
+13
+11.64
Georgia
10/29-10/31
+/- 2.7%
1316 likely voters
46
52
1
+6
+9.04
Hawaii
10/24-10/26
+/- 2.8%
1218 likely voters
61
34
5
+27
+29.35
Indiana
10/28-10/30
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
41
50
--
+9
+12.01
Indiana
10/31-11/1
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
41
54
5
+13
--
Iowa
11/1
+/- 4.0%
594 likely voters
49
45
6
+4
+2.67
Maine
10/7-10/8
+/- 4.0%
500 likely voters
48
44
--
+4
+13.21
Maine
11/1-11/2
+/- 2.4%
1633 likely voters
55
42
2
+13
--
Massachusetts
10/31-11/1
+/- 3.48%
761 likely voters
54.0
41.4
4.6
+12.6
+19.56
Massachusetts
11/1-11/2
+/- 3.0%
1089 likely voters
57
42
2
+15
--
Michigan
10/31-11/1
+/- -.-%
500 likely voters
52
46
2
+6
+5.72
Michigan
10/31-11/1
+/- 4.4%
500 registered voters
48
41
9
+7
--
Michigan
11/1
+/- 4.0%
750 likely voters
52
47
1
+5
--
Minnesota
10/31-11/1
+/- -.-%
772 likely voters
53
44
3
+9
+7.90
Montana
10/28-10/31
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
41
49
--
+8
+9.11
Nebraska
10/23-10/25
+/- 3.8%
679 likely voters
38
52
--
+14
+13.76
Nebraska
11/1
+/- 2.95%
1178 likely voters
41
54
3
+13
--
Nevada
10/29-10/31
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
50
44
4
+6
+4.06
New Hampshire
10/29-10/31
+/- 3.7%
1017 likely voters
50
44
4
+6
+3.30
Ohio
10/30-11/1
+/- 2.6%
1649 likely voters
50
46
--
+4
+2.86
Ohio
10/30-11/1
+/- 3.5%
796 likely voters
50
47
3
+3
--
Ohio
11/1
+/- 4.0%
750 likely voters
49
49
1
0
--
Virginia
10/30-11/1
+/- 3.0%
1069 likely voters
49
48
--
+1
+1.69
Wisconsin
10/30-11/1
+/- 3.0%
1210 likely voters
52
45
--
+7
+4.57

This was another seemingly good polling day for the Obama campaign on the state level. Among the toss up states, the president held small leads in Colorado and Virginia (tier one states) and more comfortable advantages  in polls in states like New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa; those Tier two states. Also, there was a bit more distance between the president and Mitt Romney in the Tier three states, Nevada and Wisconsin. Strategically, Romney has to do well in at least the Tier one and Tier two states. And by do well, I mean nearly sweep them. The former Massachusetts governor could -- if the order of states below in the Electoral College Spectrum holds -- cede New Hampshire or Iowa, or Colorado and still get to 270 with North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Ohio. But Romney would have to have two of those three smaller states to get there. If the rank order is correct, New Hampshire would be that state.

From the Obama perspective, it is still a matter of holding Nevada and Wisconsin (along with the other Lean Obama states where the margins have contracted) and tacking on Ohio or Virginia and New Hampshire for example to just push north of 270. But there are a number of other combinations of paths to 270 for the president as well if polling like that above continues to come in.


The map (changes since 11/1):
Changes (November 2)
StateBeforeAfter
NevadaToss Up ObamaLean Obama
No change in the overall tally. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.
Nevada barely shifts back into the Lean Obama category (> 4%).

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 11/1): No change in the order among the toss up states.
Nevada holds its position but slides into the Lean category.
Maine and Washington trade places.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
ME-4
(158)
NH-4
(257)
GA-16
(167)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
SD-3
(151)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SC-9
(148)
AL-9
(44)
RI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(139)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
TN-11
(128)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
WV-5
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(107)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
ND-3
(69)
WY-3
(9)
WA-12
(154)
NV-6
(253)
MT-3
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio
 is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 11/1): Nevada, given the shift above, is now within a fraction of a point of moving back into the Toss Up Obama category. Put simply, the Silver state is going to hug that line the rest of the way without a significant change in the polling data there.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

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