Saturday, November 3, 2012

The Electoral College Map (11/3/12)

So much for lazy weekends. There were 20 new polls from 14 states on Saturday and one dated poll from Utah added to mix. Again, most of the action was in either toss up states or in the series of Lean Obama states that have seen some margin contraction over the last few weeks as the polls first drew closer then leveled off. But there were a handful of polls in a few Strong Obama/Romney states that help to round out the overall picture of the race.

[And since we mentioned Utah, I'll go ahead and comment to put your mind at ease about the Beehive state. Romney won't lose that one.]

New State Polls (11/3/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
California
10/17-10/30
+/- 2.6%
1566 likely voters
54
39
5
+15
+17.60
Florida
10/30-11/1
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
45
51
4
+6
+0.24
Florida
10/31-11/1
+/- 2.7%
1545 likely voters
49
47
2
+2
--
Georgia
11/1
+/- 4.7%
426 likely voters
42.0
54.1
3.1
+12.1
+9.38
Iowa
10/30-11/1
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
46
44
10
+2
+2.73
Iowa
10/30-11/2
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
47
42
2
+5
--
Iowa
11/1-11/2
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
47
44
8
+3
--
Michigan
11/1-11/3
+/- 3.7%
700 likely voters
52
46
1
+6
+5.73
Minnesota
10/29-10/31
+/- 4.38%
500 likely voters
45
46
--
+1
+7.34
Minnesota
11/1-11/3
+/- 2.9%
1164 likely voters
53
45
2
+8
--
New Hampshire
11/1
+/- 4.3%
497 likely voters
50
49
1
+1
+3.10
New Hampshire
10/31-11/2
+/- 4.4%
502 likely voters
48
48
3
0
--
Ohio
10/31-11/1
+/- 3.1%
971 likely voters
51
45
3
+6
+2.92
Ohio
11/1-11/2
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
49
45
4
+4
--
Oregon
10/31-11/1
+/- 3.2%
921 registered voters
52
46
3
+6
+6.19
Pennsylvania
11/2-11/3
+/- 3.5%
790 likely voters
52
46
1
+6
+5.95
South Dakota
10/28-10/31
+/- 3.53%
795 likely voters
42
50
8
+8
+9.96
Utah
10/9-10/13
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
20
71
9
+51
+45.33
Utah
10/26-11/1
+/- 3.4%
870 registered voters
26
69
--
+43
--
Washington
11/1-11/3
+/- 3.2%
932 likely voters
53
46
1
+7
+13.33
Wisconsin
11/1-11/2
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
48
42
8
+6
+4.60

There was little that changed the overall outlook on the electoral college here at FHQ given the day's polling. Romney was quite strong in the states he was already just fine in and Obama continued to get some good results in the toss up and lean (Obama) states. Public Policy Polling was the most prolific firm on the day (with five total surveys) and the results largely followed the FHQ rank order of states. Michigan, Oregon and Pennsylvania were all bunched together at Obama +6 -- just as they are in the FHQ weighted averages -- and Minnesota was, as here at FHQ, on the Obama side of that group of states. The lone exception to that rule was Washington. It settled in in between Minnesota and that aforementioned group; much closer than our averages have it. Washington state has now slipped into the furthest column to the left on the Electoral College Spectrum below, but PPP has had it closer for the last couple of polls it has conducted in the Evergreen state.

Florida and Ohio should probably also be mentioned. There were polar opposites coming out of the Sunshine state from Mason-Dixon and Marist. The former was more favorable to Romney than the latter. Marist also had the race for Ohio at Obama +6 which is outside where most recent polling has had it. If the Florida poll from the Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC was similarly Obama-favorable, then that may say something about which one of the two Florida polls was closer to reality. In truth, the answer in the last week has been somewhere in the middle. The average here at FHQ has the balance tipped the slightest of margins -- just 0.24% at this point -- toward the president, but the polling in October has probably inched a little closer to Romney.


The map (changes since 11/2): No change. Obama: 332, Romney 206.

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 11/2): No change.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
ME-4
(158)
NH-4
(257)
GA-16
(167)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
SD-3
(151)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SC-9
(148)
AL-9
(44)
RI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(139)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
TN-11
(128)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
WV-5
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(107)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
ND-3
(69)
WY-3
(9)
WA-12
(154)
NV-6
(253)
MT-3
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio
 is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 11/2): No change among the toss up states.
South Dakota enters the list and is within a fraction of a point of shifting into the Lean Romney category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
South Dakota
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

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