Monday, October 3, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/3/16)




New State Polls (10/3/16)1
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
9/27-9/29
+/- 4.0%
602 likely voters
44
33
6
+11
--
Colorado
9/29-10/2
+/- 4.9%
400 likely voters
49
38
3
+11
+4.24
Delaware
9/16-9/28
+/- 4.1%
762 likely voters
51
30
9
+11
+13.60
Florida
9/27-10/2
+/- 4.2%
545 likely voters
46
41
5
+5
+2.13
North Carolina
9/27-10/2
+/- 4.4%
507 likely voters
46
43
3
+3
--
North Carolina
9/29-10/2
+/- 3.5%
805 likely voters
46
45
5
+1
+1.14
Ohio
9/27-10/2
+/- 4.4%
497 likely voters
42
47
4
+5
+0.46
Pennsylvania
9/27-10/2
+/- 4.2%
535 likely voters
45
41
6
+4
+4.86
Virginia
9/27-9/30
+/- 3.7%
892 likely voters
42
35
3
+7
+5.73
1Includes latest wave (9/9-9/29) of Ipsos/Reuters polls from the majority of states.


Polling Quick Hits:
The new work week began with nine new surveys from seven states and another wave of the Ipsos/Reuters States of the Nation polls.

Colorado:
Changes (October 3)
StateBeforeAfter
OregonLean ClintonStrong Clinton
Two eleven point leads will tend to catch one's eye any time they pop up among a series of data in a state that had seen its lead contract in recent days. The polling has fluctuated wildly in Colorado, but the bottom line remains the same: Who is above 40 percent. At the moment Clinton is more consistently above that level. That is certainly true in the Monmouth and Keating polls released today.


Delaware:
Delaware has been lightly polled this cycle -- it always is -- and while Clinton leads, she is overall well behind Obama's 2012 mark in the First state. To be clear, Trump lags Romney from four years ago as well, but by about half as much a Clinton relative to Obama. However, this latest poll from the University of Delaware finds a margin similar to that of the final result in the state in 2012. In other words, Delaware is still a blue state.


Florida:
As strange as it is to see it, Quinnipiac, at this point in the race, finds Clinton up five points in Florida and Trump five points ahead in Ohio. Now, there are certainly some unique (to 2016) demographic reasons why that it is, but it is something to see Florida on the Democratic side of Ohio on the Electoral College Spectrum below. That order has tended to be in reverse -- Ohio to the Democratic side of Florida -- during the Obama era and even stretching back to 2004. But both quadrennial battleground states have consistently fallen in this order since before the conventions.

What is noteworthy about the Florida polling during the back half of September is that both candidates have risen into the 40s, but Clinton has more consistently pushed into the mid-40s with Trump just behind in the low to mid-40s. The Q-poll fits that trend.


North Carolina:
Two polls in North Carolina and two narrow Clinton leads. Like Florida, both candidates have clearly established footholds in the 40s; the mark, perhaps, of the most highly contested states (where third party support is flagging to some extent). The race in the Tar Heel state is close, but the trading of narrow leads there has been displaced with a run of Clinton leads in polls in the field after the first debate a week ago. She already held a very small lead there, but this has solidified it.


Ohio:
This is the one spot of red in an otherwise blue day of poll releases. Whereas Florida saw a tied last Quinnipiac survey give way to a five point Clinton advantage now, the Ohio trendline across Q-polls has moved in the opposite direction. A modest Trump edge in the Buckeye state earlier in the month has become a slightly wider lead now. But that shift occurred in the midst of a continued volatile series of surveys in the state. Ohio remains on the Clinton side of the partisan line here at FHQ, but by less than half a point. Only Nevada is closer.


Pennsylvania:
FHQ could dig into the Q-poll from Pennsylvania, but the story is really the same as it has been there: Clinton is ahead and by a margin that continues to hover around the Lean/Toss Up line.

...which is where the last Quinnipiac poll was (and a great many others have been of late).


Virginia:
Finally, in the Old Dominion, yet another survey -- this one from Christopher Newport -- sees Clinton ahead by six to eight points. That has been the established range there both before and after the first debate. Both candidates gained over their positions in the school's poll from last week, but the story is still the same there.


--
The addition of these nine polls plus the Ipsos data did little to fundamentally alter the outlook here at FHQ. The electoral count remains unchanged and only Oregon change categories, pushing to the strong side of the Strong/Lean line. There were some subtle moves on the Electoral College Spectrum, but outside of Delaware and New Jersey, nothing was more than a cell or two in one direction or the other. The Watch List was more active. Notably, Iowa came back on while Maine dropped off. Both shifted in Clinton's direction.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(172)
PA-20
(263)
SC-9
(154)
MT-3
(53)
MD-10
(17)
OR-7
(179)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
TX-38
(145)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
RI-4
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
MS-6
(107)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
MN-10
(193)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
AK-3
(101)
NE-53
(41)
MA-11
(86)
ME-23
(195)
OH-18
(334 | 222)
KS-6
(98)
KY-8
(36)
NY-29+13
(116)
NM-5
(200)
NV-6
(340 | 204)
IN-11
(92)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
WI-10
(210)
IA-6
(198)
UT-6
(81)
WV-5
(19)
DE-3
(139)
MI-16
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
OK-7
(14)
CT-7
(146)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16
(181)
SD-3
(67)
ID-4
(7)
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(243)
MO-10+13
(165)
TN-11
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Michigan
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Rhode Island
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/2/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/1/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/30/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/2/16)



New State Polls (10/2/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Illinois
9/21-9/24
+/- 2.83%
1200 likely voters
48.6
35.1
11.3
+13.4
+15.20
New Mexico
9/27-9/29
+/- 4.4%
501 likely voters
35
31
6
+4
+6.55


Polling Quick Hits:
There were just a couple of polls added to the mix today on an otherwise slow post-debate Sunday.

Illinois:
The first of those two polls is out of Illinois. But it is not a post-debate poll. The Victory Research survey was in the field toward the tail end of the week prior to last Monday's first presidential debate. On the one hand, Clinton maintains a comfortable lead in what has been a Strong Democratic state for a generation. But on the other, the former Secretary of State is under the 50 percent mark for the fourth out of the last six polls conducted in the Land of Lincoln (since August). That would, perhaps, look worse if Trump was consistently at or above the 40 percent threshold instead of mostly stuck in the 30s.


New Mexico:
In the Land of Enchantment, the story is the number that does not make the table above. Clinton and Trump are in the low to mid-30s, but Gary Johnson is siphoning off nearly a quarter of support in the survey. Polling has been sporadic in the former New Mexico governor's home state, but what little is there has seen Johnson creep from the upper teens into the lower 20s in a couple of recent surveys (the other being the Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll). With Johnson included, Clinton has generally been around but just below 40 percent with Trump tending to trail in the lower 30s. One thing is for sure, Johnson's presence makes it close in New Mexico.


--
Neither poll shifted either state in any meaningful way here at FHQ. New Mexico flips spots with Minnesota, but that was the extent of the changes across the several figures.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
DE-3
(171)
PA-20
(263)
SC-9
(154)
MT-3
(53)
MD-10
(17)
OR-7
(178)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
TX-38
(145)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
RI-4
(182)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
MS-6
(107)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
MN-10
(192)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
AK-3
(101)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
NM-5
(197)
OH-18
(334 | 222)
KS-6
(98)
AL-9
(33)
NY-29
(115)
WI-10
(207)
NV-6
(340 | 204)
IN-11
(92)
NE-53
(24)
IL-20
(135)
MI-16
(223)
IA-6
(198)
UT-6
(81)
WV-5
(19)
NJ-14
(149)
NH-4
(227)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
ID-4
(14)
WA-12
(161)
ME-33
(230)
GA-16
(181)
SD-3
(67)
OK-7
(10)
CT-7
(168)
VA-13
(243)
MO-10+13
(165)
TN-11
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Maine
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Michigan
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Rhode Island
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/1/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/30/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/29/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Saturday, October 1, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/1/16)



Before jumping into the new polls for the day, allow FHQ a moment to make a few technical points now that the calendar has flipped from September to October. First, as promised, the possibility of electoral vote splits in Maine and Nebraska are now accounted for. One can most easily see that in the map above where the districts are being tracked now on the right side above the date. But that change is also reflected in the Electoral College Spectrum below (see particularly footnote #3). 

Second, not only are the day's new polls added, but so too are the 50 state surveys from UPI and Ipsos. As the latter are a rolling three week tracking poll, FHQ has made the editorial decision to include just the most recent version. That will be the case until there is no longer any overlap across versions. The inclusion of those series of surveys has shuffled a few states around as the changes table below notes. Alaska, Kansas and Utah shifted into deeper red territory and Mississippi inched just inside the Strong/Lean line on the Lean side. Meanwhile, on the Clinton side of the partisan line, Maine and Oregon continued to huddle around two different lines of demarcation between the categories here at FHQ. Both Maine and Oregon nudged back into the Lean Clinton category but from different directions. Overall, the shake up in the Spectrum -- the underlying order of states -- was pretty minimal.


New State Polls (10/1/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Nevada
9/27-9/29
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
45
44
5
+1
+0.29
New Hampshire
9/25-9/27
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
43
37
2
+6
+5.77
New Jersey
9/22-9/28
+/- 3.9%
638 likely voters
46
40
5
+6
+11.37


Polling Quick Hits:
Three new polls were released on the first Saturday in October.

Nevada:
Changes (October 1)
StateBeforeAfter
AlaskaLean TrumpStrong Trump
KansasLean TrumpStrong Trump
MaineToss Up ClintonLean Clinton
MississippiStrong TrumpLean Trump
OregonStrong ClintonLean Clinton
UtahLean TrumpStrong Trump
The Bendixen poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal is as much of a confirming poll as one could expect. Yesterday's Suffolk poll pushed the Silver state back to the Clinton side of the partisan line, but only barely. This poll is consistent with that positioning and is further evidence that there has been a shift away from that September streak of polls that established a range from Clinton and Trump tied to Trump +3.


New Hampshire:
Let's put it this way about the race in the Granite state: Clinton has not trailed in a poll there since July and that poll was an outlier. While other states have seen the race dance around a bit, New Hampshire has consistently had Clinton ahead in the five to seven point range. This GBA Strategies survey echoes that general dynamic.


New Jersey:
Before the Obama era -- especially during the Bush elections -- New Jersey always seemed to tighten up toward the end of the presidential race. It was never enough to make it competitive, but enough to grab the attention of poll watchers. This Stockton poll feels a little like those 2000 and 2004 days. Still, while Clinton lags behind Obama's 2012 performance in the Garden state, Trump is similarly trailing Romney's pace there. However, it should be noted that this poll has Trump right where Romney ended. But that 40 percent is on the high side of where he has been across the full series of New Jersey surveys.


--
The technical additions triggered a heavier load of changes than normal. Yet, the map and Spectrum remained largely unchanged. There was some more shuffling on and off the Watch List -- around the category lines -- than anything else.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
DE-3
(171)
PA-20
(263)
SC-9
(154)
MT-3
(53)
MD-10
(17)
OR-7
(178)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
TX-38
(145)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
RI-4
(182)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
MS-6
(107)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(187)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
AK-3
(101)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
MN-10
(197)
OH-18
(334 | 222)
KS-6
(98)
AL-9
(33)
NY-29
(115)
WI-10
(207)
NV-6
(340 | 204)
IN-11
(92)
NE-53
(24)
IL-20
(135)
MI-16
(223)
IA-6
(198)
UT-6
(81)
WV-5
(19)
NJ-14
(149)
NH-4
(227)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
ID-4
(14)
WA-12
(161)
ME-33
(230)
GA-16
(181)
SD-3
(67)
OK-7
(10)
CT-7
(168)
VA-13
(243)
MO-10+13
(165)
TN-11
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Delaware
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Maine
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Michigan
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Rhode Island
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/30/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/29/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/28/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.